. Entrevistas e outras notas sobre a saída do euro - Massa Monetária
 
 
Entrevistas e outras notas sobre a saída do euro
7 Dez 2011 18:02
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Olli Rhen, comissário europeu e Didier Reynders, ministro das Finanças belga, numa cerimónia de comemoração em Bruxelas da adesão da Estónia ao euro de Julho 2010. A Estónia é o 17º e mais recente membro da união monetária, o euro circula no país desde Janeiro deste ano. Fonte: Bloomberg
     

Nos tempos que correm, o jornalismo económico é empurrado para novos desafios na sua função de verificador: além de verificar a realidade como sempre lhe deve ser exigido, é lhe também pedido que verifique a plausabilidade de cenários futuros. Foi o que o Negócios tentou fazer hoje com o trabalho "E se Portugal saísse do euro?". A resposta é uma cenarização complexa e subjectiva. Ficam também muitas dúvidas por responder: umas porque não conseguimos ser claros e sintéticos, outras porque são impossíveis de antecipar. Para quem estiver interessado no tema, aqui ficam alguns dos elementos que usámos, incluindo as entrevistas a Ricardo Cabral, da Universidade da Madeira, Eric Dor, da Universidade Católica de Lille e Charles Wyplosz, director do Centro Internacional para Estudos Monetários e Financeiros de Genebra.

 

Antes das entrevistas, alguns dos artigos que usámos:

 

a) Em Setembro, a UBS cenarizou a saída a saída do euro (de forma dramática), com pouca informação prática, mas com uma quantificação dos custos: Para um país pequeno do euro poderia significar uma perda de 50% no PIB no primeiro ano.

 

b) O banco japonês Nomura tem-se destacado na análise ao tema. Num artigo de que já aqui falámos a propósito de um regresso ao escudo, os economistas do banco dedicam-se aos aspectos legais de uma queda do euro. Esta semana publicaram um outro artigo onde estimam qual seria a desvalorização para as várias moedas do euro num cenário de fim da união monetária. Não encontrámos o artigo, mas Tyler Durden, no Zero Hedge, faz um resumo. Para Portugal a desvalorização aproximar-se-ia dos 50%

 

c) Em relação aos aspectos legais decorrentes de uma saída do euro, o melhor artigo com que nos cruzámos é o de Eric Dor, que destacámos em "Um guia prático para a saída do euro".

 

 

Eric Dior, foi um dos nossos entrevistados sobre aspectos legais da saída. A versão em inglês, fica aqui:

 

1) What do you think would be the most problematic issue in an exit scenario (where Portugal leaves and euro stays the currency for stronger economies)? Is it merely technical? What major legal challenges would arise?

 

A major issue is the legality of the exit itself. It is hard to conceive any realistic exit plan that would not be a kind of infringement of the treaties. Negociating a treaty amendment would be too long and would trigger speculation against the country. At best there could be a surprise agreement in the Council during a week-end summit, with an uncertain lawfulness. In the absence of a consensual and lawful exit, il will be difficult to enforce lawful redenomination of many international financial contracts in the new national currency, and there will be many disputes in front of national and foreign courts.

 

2) What factor might be important in trying to avoid capital flights and bank runs?

 

Only a sudden exit and a temporary freeze of bank accounts could avoid a bank run. It is what makes a scenario of exit difficult because there are so many technical difficulties that should normally be negociated with the ECB and the other countries of the euro zone, before leaving. But negociations about an exit would of course trigger a bank run.

 

3) Were Portugal to introduce escudos again, would the following contracts have to be redenominated in the new currency?

 

Remark: Whatever the country the law of which governs an international financial contract denominated in a given currency, everything concerning the currency of this contract is governed by the lex monetae of the country which issues this currency. A financial contract previously settled in euro will be legally redenominated in new escudo if this contract refers to the "lex monetae" of Portugal. The problem here is that, even if Portugal converts the euro into escudo, the remaining states of the euro zone will keep the euro itself. In many cases there will thus be a conflict of competing "lex monetae". The "lex monetae" of Portugal will establish that the currency of obligation will be the new escudo, even if the contract was previously settled in euro. But the "lex monetae" of the remaining member states of the euro zone will establish that the currency of obligation of a contract previously settled in euro will be the euro. The determination of the right "lex monetae" depends on the contract. By reference to the law appplicable to the contract as a whole, it has to be determined by reference to which "lex monetae" the parties intended to contract. Several characteristics of a contract may be used to determine the "lex moetae" applicable to this contract. A government is often presumed to contract by reference to its own "lex monetae". Transactions related to securities listed on a stock market are supposed to be settled by reference to the "lex monetae" of the country where it is located. It is often supposed that the parties intended to contract by reference to the "lex monetae" of the place of payment selected in the contract. A court located in Portugal will certainly decide that a contract refered to the "lex monetae" of  Portugal if the contract is governed by the Portuguese law, or if the debtor is located in Portugal, or if Portugal is the place of payment. In the absence of any of all these conditions, even a Portuguese court will not accept redenomination of the contract into new escudo. Foreign courts will also attempt to determine to which "lex monetae" a contract refers. But they will add certainly add a condition: even if it seems that the parties intended to contract by reference to the "lex monetae" of Portugal, redenomination in new escudo will only be accepted if the exit of Portugal from the euro zone was lawful and consensual, and not the result of a unilateral and unlawful decision. The courts of another member State of the EU cannot give effect to a Greek law that would have been passed in disregard of Treaty obligations.

 

3.1) a savings deposit in a Portuguese bank, in euros

 

Certainly if the depositor, that is the holder of the saving deposit, is a resident in Portugal.

 

3.2) a savings deposit in a foreign bank operating in Portugal, in euros

 

Foreign banks operating in Portugal are subsidiaries of foreign banks located abroad, but are themselves incorporated under Portugese law. They are thus governed by the laws of Portugal. Therefore the saving deposit in euro in such a bank would be redenominated into the new national currency.

 

3.3) a savings account in a foreign currency (dollars, for example) in a portuguese bank

 

These accounts should not be redenominated in the new currency. The new national monetary law will establish that the national currency, formerly the euro, is replaced by a new national currency, and at which initial rate the values in euros are converted into the new currency. It does not concern assets and liabilities denominated on other foreign currencies.

 

3.4) bonds issued by banks, as weel as other loans they have obtained from other banks, the ECB or the government through recapitalizations

 

If the bonds are issued by the banks under the law of Portugal, and were not clearly targeted towards foreign investors rather than national investors, the courts should decide that the borrowing banks and the lenders intended to refer to the "lex monetae" of Portugal. Therefore such bonds will be redenominated in the new national currency. A similar reasoning applies to interbank loans.

 

The loans of the Eurosystem to the commercial banks in Portugal, in the context of the refinancing operations, are granted by the Banco do Portugal, not by the ECB. These loans will certainly be redenominated in the new national currency. However there is also a debt in euro of the Banco do Portugal to the rest of the Eurosystem: the ECB and the other National Central Banks of the euro zone. This debt is mainly related to TARGET2 balances and to the issue of banknotes.The Eurosystem will normally not accept these debts to be redenominated in the new national currency.

 

3.5) a bond/stock/other financial product issued by a portuguese enterprise that has been issued via a foreign jurisdiction (cayman, Cape Vert, for example)

 

These financial products are governed by foreign law, and the place of payment is outside Portugal. Therefore they will probably not be redenominated in new escudo.

 

3.6) a mortgage loan in a bank operating in Portugal

 

It should normally be redenominated in the new national currency if the client is a resident of portugal, which is certainly the case.

 

3.7) portuguese sovereign debt held by a foreigner

 

It is not the nationality of the holder that is determinant. If the sovereign debt securities are governed by the Portuguese law, for example if they have been isuued in Portugal, if Portugal is the place of payment, if they are listed on a secondary market in portugal, they will be lawfully redenominated whatever the nationality of the holder.

 

3.8) portuguese sovereign debt issued in a foreign market, but held by a Portuguese resident

 

Here is will be rather supposed that the Portuguese government, by deciding to issue the bonds on a foreign place, intended to borrow by reference to another "lex monetae" than the Portuguese law. It will be difficult to lawfully redenominate this debt in new escudo.

 

3.9) portuguese sovereign debt to international institutions, such as IMF, ECB, and EC

 

These international institutions will not accept to redenominate their loans in euro to Portugal. They will require reimbursement and interest payments in euro, as long as the euro exist in other countries.

 

Ricardo Cabral, da Universidade da Madeira, foi outro dos economistas que respondeu ao nosso pedido de ajuda: As respostas centram-se nas dimensões económicas.

 

Cabral enquadra primeiro as respostas: é contra a saída do euro. Considera, contudo que, "deveríamos preparar planos de contingência para outros cenários, mesmo aqueles que nos possam parecer à partida inaceitáveis", vincando que é "esse o espírito" das suas respostas. 

 

1) Uma saída de Portugal da moeda única (continuando o euro a ser a moeda de outros países) que tipo de choques económicos provocaria no curto, médio e longo prazo?

 

2) Há alguma ideia de como se poderia operacionalizar essa saída, ou como foi feita noutros países. Por exemplo, anunciar-se-ia uma saída com uma taxa de câmbio 200.482 escudos = 1 euro (para depois desvalorizar a moeda ao longo do tempo) ou, em alternativa, anunciar-se-ia logo uma desvalorização numa determinada percentagem do escudo face aos 200.482 fixados no início do euro?

 

Penso que não. Que o melhor deveria ser deixar os mercados fixar a nova taxa de cambio livremente. Uma possível opção seria manter as duas moedas em circulação no inicio, e deixar que os mercados fixassem a taxa de cambio da nova moeda “o novo euro português”.

  

3) Como se consegue garantir um processo “ordeiro” de desvalorização cambial face ao euro ao longo de um período de tempo? Isto é, como é que se garante que a nova moeda nacional não passa pura e simplesmente a valer próximo de nada nos mercados internacionais?

 

Há sempre um overshooting e penso que seria fútil (e resultaria em perdas financeiras significativas para o estado) qualquer tentativa de intervenção no mercado cambial para evitar que a taxa de câmbio encontrasse o seu novo nível de equilíbrio. A desvalorização poderia ser muito significativa, sobretudo se o processo for mal conduzido.

Há várias opções disponíveis ao estado português que permitiriam reduzir a desvalorização cambial, sem ser necessário intervenções no mercado cambial a suportar a nova moeda. Uma dessas opções passaria por assegurar, através de diferentes instrumentos, que a nova moeda seria “escassa”.

  

4) Como é que se ajustariam os preços de bens e serviços na economia que não estão sujeitos a contratos? Penso, por exemplo, num cabaz de compras de supermercado.

 

Aumento generalizado de preços, que poderia ser muito significativo.

 

5) Seria possível evitar, e como, corridas aos bancos e fugas massivas de capitais? A nacionalização de bancos seria inevitável? Porquê?

 

Sim, existem vários instrumentos à disposição do estado português e do Banco de Portugal. Seria necessário intervir nos bancos, através de um processo de resolução bancária, porque estes têm dívida externa muito elevada. Os depósitos teriam, como é usual nestes casos, prioridade no pagamento, e portanto o risco para os depositantes seria minimizado.

 

6) O que evitaria falências em catadupa de empresas dependentes do mercado interno e/ou com uma forte exposição internacional em moeda estrangeira?

 

Muitas das empresas direccionadas para o mercado interno (excepto importadores) assim como empresas exportadoras seriam beneficiadas. O problema seriam aquelas empresas com dívida externa elevada, particularmente aquelas com dívida cujo foro jurídico não fosse o português, que possivelmente ficariam insolventes. Seriam necessário novos instrumentos legais, nomeadamente legislação de falência tipo Chapter 11 dos EUA que permitisse a empresas continuar a operar de forma eficiente mesmo durante o processo de falência e que permitisse gerir um elevado numero de falências ao mesmo tempo. Nesses processos de falência, várias dessas empresas passariam a ser propriedade dos credores internacionais, que contudo veriam o seus créditos substancialmente reduzidos de forma a tornar essas empresas viáveis. Além disso seria necessário salvaguardar o interesse nacional em empresas de sectores estratégicos para o país e assegurar, por exemplo através da supracitada legislação, que essas empresas não poderiam ser liquidadas.

 

7) Como se poderia evitar a exclusão dos mercados internacionais da moeda nacional, tornando Portugal na prática, numa economia “euroizada”? Neste caso, os eventuais benefícios de uma saída do euro seria ou não mitigados?

 

Utilizar mecanismos de mercado para assegurar que as variáveis fundamentais dificilmente justificariam uma desvalorização acentuada da nova moeda. Isso significa tornar muito difícil e dispendioso especular contra essa moeda.

 

8) A saída da Zona Euro traria uma maior capacidade de flexibilidade cambial. Mas traria também juros e inflação mais elevados, ou não? Que efeito dominaria e porquê?

 

Depende muito de como for feita essa saída. Se for feita de uma forma desordenada, sim, poderia ser muito prejudicial. Contudo, se for feita de forma bem planeada, poderão ser minorados os efeitos que serão sempre, naturalmente, negativos no curto prazo. Se se reduzir substancialmente, ex-ante, as necessidades liquidas de financiamento da economia, então a poupança domestica poderia ser suficiente para financiar défice orçamental e investimento privado. Portanto talvez fosse possível um equilíbrio com taxas de juro aceitáveis.

 

O maior desafio estaria em assegurar que a oferta domestica seria capaz de aumentar a produção interna sem que daí resultasse um aumento excessivo dos preços.

 

 

Finalmente, Charles Wyplosz, director do Centro Internacional para Estudos Monetários e Financeiros de Genebra, responde às mesmas questões de Ricardo Cabral.

 

1) Were Portugal to leave the euro, what economic shocks should be expected in the short, medium and long term

 

Leaving the euro would destroy millions of private contracts (sales, apartment rents, borrowings, salaries), prompting a massive collapse of economic activity through bankruptcies and losses of property rights. Eventually, a deep depreciation would allow the economy to grow.

 

2) How would/should this exit be effective in terms of the new exchange rate? Should it be settled at the value established for escudo-euro fx rate in 1999 (200,482 escudos for euros) and then move to a soft devaluation over time (a crawling peg)? Or should the new currency be immediately devalued against the 200.482 euros?

 

It will be impossible to control the new exchange rate. Initially, it will collapse.

 

3) How can a soft and steady devaluation path be guaranteed? Or, otherwise, how can one be sure that the new escudo wouldn’t devaluate to end up valuing almost nothing in the international markets? 


See above.


4) How would the prices – that are not established under legal contracts – adjust? (I’m thinking in a supermarket basket of goods, for instance)

 

The law of demand and supply will apply.


5) Is it possible to avoid a bank runs and major capital flight? The nationalization of banks would be inevitable?

 

Bank runs will occur on a massive scale and banks will collapse. They will have to be nationalized. 
 

6) How could one avoid the bankruptcy of companies that have high external obligations but depend on internal revenues?

 

No way.
 

7) How can one avoid that the new currency (the escudo for instance) will not become just a national currency: that is, that Portugal becomes a “euroized “economy? Can this offset the benefits of an exit?

 

Making the escudo the legal tender should work.

 

8) Leaving the eurozone gives more monetary flexibility. But on the other hand it will also mean higher inflation and interest rates, or not? What effect would dominate, and why?

 

There is no miracle. One key benefit of euro membership is price and exchange rate stability. It will take a while for the central bank to establish its credibility. For a few years, there will be high inflation, a freely falling exchange rate and high nominal interest rate.

 

 

 

 

 


 

 


 
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Bayi disse, quinta-feira, 29 de Março de 2012 7:56
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Hi Lily,  Just got back from 2 weeks in Lisbon.  I went 3 years ago bymyself but this time I took my son and his wife.  There were afew cganhes I noticed.  The people of Lisbon were friendly and helpful and courteouson my last trip here.  Pretty much they were impatient andnot courteous drivers. One big change is now taxis and busesand regular drivers will stop for you even if you just look likeyou are going to step off the curb into a marked crosswalk.  Iam not in a hurry when I am in Lisbon so this doesn't reallymatter to me but I am sure the the locals and most visitorsreally appreciate the change.  Now if they can just pick up aftertheir dogs.  One other change was a few more beggars and lots more streetpeddlers.  No one I asked seemed to know if this was because ofmore tourists coming to Lisbon or just because of the economy.It is not something that bothers me though because I am usedto seeing tons more here in cities like San Francisco, California.  I had another fantastic time in Lisbon and my son and daughter-in-law fell in love with the pLace also. Now I will see if I can getthem to follow your blog too.  One last thing Lily.  You have a link to the Spotted by Localswebsite.  I would encourage anyone traveling to Lisbon to checkout their website for different or new places to eat or visit.

apoguyoek disse, segunda-feira, 19 de Dezembro de 2011 12:27
Whats up, few questions when you get time

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e de loucos disse, segunda-feira, 12 de Dezembro de 2011 15:09
e esta

a coisa ficava preta

 

 
  • Frente a Frente

     

    Deve Portugal reestruturar a sua dívida pública?

     

    Acabou o Frente-a-Frente: os leitores do Negócios dividiram-se pela metade: entre os 1143 votos, 50,5% foram favoráveis à reestruturação defendida por Ricardo Cabral, e 49,5% opuseram-se a tal solução, alinhando com Pedro Rodrigues.
     

    Só no massa monetária, os argumentos foram consultados mais de duas mil vezes, e entre blogue e edição online os leitores ofereceram quase cinco dezenas de comentários. O Massa Monetária agradece aos convidados e a todos os leitores o empenho e os contributos para o debate e a reflexão.

     

    Até breve num outro Frente-a-Frente

 

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